Behavioural insights for disaster preparedness

Applying knowledge from behavioural and social science can help explain why people or organizations do not take the necessary measures to prepare in the cold phase, the time before a disaster occurs. These events often have high impact, but relatively low probability. In general, people struggle to correctly perceive the risk of low-probability/high-impact events and may thus underprepare for such events. A lack of preparedness can be exacerbated by an optimism bias – the belief that bad things are less likely to happen to oneself than to others, as well as an overestimation of one’s own ability to respond. This tendency may also lead people to ignore public warnings. Evidence suggests that the often-taken approach of simply advising people of the risks they may face in their region is thus insufficient to motivate preparedness behaviours. 

During a disaster, i.e. in the hot phase, contrary to common belief, there is a risk that people underreact, possibly driven by an inaccurate perception of the actual threat they are facing. In uncertain situations, people also tend to look towards (similar) others to inform their own behaviour. In addition, late warnings, false alarms, misinformation – whether spread deliberately or not – or misunderstandings of the warnings, can further increase uncertainty and lead to wrong or untimely actions being taken.

Behavioural science plays a crucial role in disaster preparedness by uncovering the psychological and social barriers preventing people from adopting critical safety behaviours. As an example, Haiti, is a country highly exposed to natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, and landslides. Despite regular exposure, individual and community responses are shaped by behavioural factors, including misunderstanding of early warning messages, mistrust in messengers, and a tendency to underestimate risks.

Addressing such barriers requires a better understanding of diverse influences, such as cultural beliefs, past experiences, and access to resources, to design effective and tailored solutions, also in less exposed countries. Recognizing that disaster prevention is not a one-size-fits-all endeavour is vital, as behaviours and responses vary widely depending on the disaster type and the affected populations' heterogeneity. Although European contexts differ from Haiti's, the methods and insights drawn from a behavioural science diagnostic on disaster preparedness and responses can be equally valuable for identifying barriers and informing response strategies generally. For example, barriers can include (Llopis et al., 2020):  

1. Alert failures: Unreliable or unavailable alert systems, leaving citizens unaware of imminent disasters.
2. Unclear messages: Complex, unclear warnings and distrust in the messengers can lead to confusion and inaction.
3. Risk denial: People underestimate health risks due to biases, resource constraints, or a desire to prioritize protecting material goods.
4. Insufficient infrastructure: A lack of safe shelters and poor or unsuitable infrastructure can impede evacuation efforts.
5. Negative experiences: In repeat situations, past experiences of theft, lack of privacy, or poor management discouraged evacuation.

By establishing conducive environments where stakeholders can collaborate, learn, and innovate together, effective citizen engagement can be established. The Red Cross uses the participatory risk assessment EVCA (Enhanced Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment), which aims to work closely with citizens in assessing capacities, risks and solutions. Similarly for adaptation efforts, the EVCA is an important tool to assess changing risks and solutions. In addition, interactive learning approaches, such as serious climate games in which participants have to make decisions which will have consequences, can increase the ability to understand the complexity linked to the uncertainty of climate change and the consequences of a lack of climate action.