Using Foresight Techniques in Longer-term Disaster Risk Management

In the context of modern disasters, anticipating and preparing for emerging risks requires comprehensive risk assessment using foresight techniques. Moving beyond past-oriented paradigms, disaster risk should be conceptualised as a dynamic system. Foresight techniques, such as horizon scanning and scenario building, help to identify key drivers of change and analyse the impact of different future conditions. The European Union's Disaster Resilience Goals emphasise the systematic application of these methods in DRM. However, legal frameworks for foresight analysis in DRM are underdeveloped. The ROADMAP2 project explores how foresight techniques are used in risk assessments to guide adaptive, preventive or preparedness actions in the civil protection system.

On this topic, the flash report presents the following good practices:

Tasmanian heatwave case: Riddell and colleagues conducted a foresight exercise on heatwave risks in Tasmania, developing future scenarios and integrating them into a dynamic risk assessment to propose risk reduction methods.

Imagining the future of pandemics: WHO's foresight analysis aims to support informed decision-making on the transition from emergency response to future preparedness for pandemics and epidemics.

National Risk Assessment in Finland: anticipate sudden events that require deviation from normal activities, identifying and assessing risks with a wide national impact in 15 threat scenarios.

National Risk Assessment in Belgium: contributes to the mid-term review of the Sendai Framework by providing an overview of existing disaster risk reduction practices in Belgium and insights into future perspectives.

Canada’s National Risk Profile: reduce disaster risk and increase resilience by raising awareness, identifying gaps in emergency management, and supporting federal risk assessment and climate change adaptation efforts.