The World Economic Forum (WEF) runs annual perception surveys with experts which provide a unique view on their assessments of future risks the world might face. This process culminates in the Global Risks Report. The 2024 edition studies a handful of the most severe risks we may see in the next ten-year phase in a context of economic uncertainty, a planet under climate change, rapid technological progress, and resurgent conflicts.

The key findings highlight a principally negative perception for the world over the next two years - which is expected to become worse as we approach the next decade. In the survey, conducted in September 2023, the majority (54%) of respondents anticipate some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes, while another 30% of respondents expect even more turbulent conditions. The forecast is significantly more negative within a ten-year time horizon, with nearly two-thirds of respondents expecting a stormy or turbulent outlook.

Extreme weather: risk number one in 2024

Environment-related risks continue to top the risks landscape in all three surveyed time frames. Two-thirds of respondents rank extreme weather as the risk most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024. Similarly, the EU Civil Protection Mechanism is preparing for potential extreme weather events in 2024. Both developments reflect the increasing concern of climate change, with the warming phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle projected to intensify and persist until May this year as well as 2023 being confirmed as the hottest year on record.

The technological hazards of AI-generated misinformation and disinformation and cyberattacks also feature in the top five for most likely risks in 2024, in addition to hazards from the societal sphere.

The Global Risks Report 2024's figure on the current risk landscape with extreme weather as the most severe — "Please select up to five risks that you believe are most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024." (WEF Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024, Figure B.)

Extreme weather events perceived as a high risk in the longer timelines as well

The risk of extreme weather events is also perceived as the second-most severe risk over the two-year time frame and the most severe in the next decade. As with last year’s rankings, nearly all environmental risks feature among the top ten over the longer term. In addition to long-term threats to earth and nature systems, as well as biodiversity, the risks of cybersecurity incidents, involuntary migration, and societal polarisation are ranked high.

The Global Risks Report 2024's figure on the short and long term risk landscape with misinformation and disinformation most severe on a 2 year timeline and extreme weather in a 10 year timeline — "Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 2-year and 10-year period." (WEF Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024, Figure C.)

Concurrently, the report's findings align with the European Union's overview of risks and with similar research needs surveys that DG ECHO has run with the UCPM Member/Participating States. For example, threats from climate change-induced floods and wildfires as well as effects of cyber security incidents are ranked as high needs. Find out more findings and deeper data from the Global Risks Report 2024 on the link below.