Modern disaster risk management requires a comprehensive assessment that utilizes foresight techniques. These techniques allow for the anticipation of emerging risks and the planning of risk-informed development. Unlike traditional methods, foresight embraces uncertainty and considers a range of future possibilities
The report examines the use of foresight techniques in the context of long-term disaster risk management. In an era of complex disasters, it is essential to anticipate and prepare for emerging risks through a comprehensive risk assessment that includes foresight techniques. These techniques, such as horizon scanning and scenario building, allow the identification of key drivers of change and the analysis of the impact of different future disaster conditions. The report highlights how foresight techniques can support adaptive, preventive or preparedness actions for impending disruptive events. Key objectives include improving the capacity for risk assessment, anticipation and planning for disaster risk management in order to develop preventive measures. However, the legal framework for carrying out foresight analysis in the context of disaster risk management is still underdeveloped. The report presents several case studies, including the heat wave risk analysis in Tasmania, the WHO pandemic foresight exercise, and national risk assessments in Finland and Belgium. These examples demonstrate the importance of considering long-term drivers of change, such as globalisation, urbanisation and technological development, and of involving a wide range of stakeholders in the foresight process.
ROADMAP2-Pubblications: https://roadmap2.ci3r.it/publications/
Sectors
Risk drivers
Thematic series