Security threats to Europe come from state and non-state, foreign and domestic individuals and groups. New technologies, cyber space and social media add a new dimension to this landscape, posing new challenges in terms of security.
The European security landscape is ever-evolving and increasingly complex.
According to the United Nations, since 24 February 2022, more than 12 million people have been displaced by the conflict in Ukraine.
Security threats to Europe come from state and non-state, foreign and domestic individuals and groups. New technologies, cyber space and social media add a new dimension to this landscape, posing new challenges in terms of security.
Conflicts in different regions of the world are a major driver of terrorist activity, which is a serious threat to Europe – not only because it poses a direct danger of attack to the public, infrastructure and sites/artefacts of cultural heritage, but also because it has wider repercussions. Radicalism creates a feeling of insecurity, fuels distrust among different groups in society and towards the government, feeds prejudices and extremist views, and erodes the sense of community.
Alongside conflict in different regions of the world, research into the root causes of radicalisation in Europe identifies the root causes of radicalisation, which requires strengthening resilience, fostering social inclusion, enhancing mutual understanding and tolerance, tackling inequalities, and preventing marginalisation and stigmatisation of groups or communities. It also highlights the importance of the crime-terrorism nexus, and the role prisons play in radicalising individuals.
The risk from terrorism is aggravated by technological development. For example, the barrier for gaining knowledge on the use of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) materials has lowered. The internet facilitates access to know-how and substances, and some chemical materials have dual-use and are readily available.
Technological development has also fostered increased risk of disinformation, which, alongside growing polarisation in Europe, provides an enabling environment for influencing campaigns on topics such as elections, migration, and vaccinations. The recent COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how adversaries can use crisis situations and related public anxiety as an opportunity to spread false or misleading information online in order to create confusion and undermine an effective response.
Armed conflicts and escalating political instability have had a big impact on the terrorist threat globally and in Europe.
The military defeat of the Islamic State in 2019 was a major achievement in the fight against terror, but it did not end the threat from jihadist terrorism. Radicalised individuals with combat experience and international terrorist connections may be ready to commit new atrocities or could serve as role models, propagandists, recruiters or fundraisers for terrorist organisations.
Europe also has a long history of extremist parties and movements that fear alleged loss of national identity to entrench a climate of animosity against minority groups. Such animosity, built on xenophobia, anti-Semitic, Islamophobic and anti-immigration sentiment, may lower the threshold for some radicalised individuals to use violence against minority groups.
As well as in Europe and the Middle East, terrorist organisations and threats persist in Afghanistan and parts of Africa and South-East Asia. Terrorist organisations using CBRN materials inside and outside the EU is a concern. and EU law enforcement authorities have disrupted several terrorist plots involving chemicals.
More about European Disaster Risk Terrorism here.
Hybrid threats aim to weaken and destabilise society by inflicting economic damage, corrupting decision-making processes, creating confusion, amplifying divisions and undermining public trust in government institutions, mainstream media and democratic processes. They are not a new phenomenon; many of the influencing techniques have existed for a very long time. However, the threats are evolving in line with changing geopolitical, technological and social trends.
Hybrid threats involve a mix of coercive and subversive activity, and conventional and unconventional methods (i.e. diplomatic, military, economic and technological) used in a coordinated manner by state and non-state groups to pursue their strategic objectives. Hybrid influencing techniques can include attacks on critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, interference in elections, financing of anti-establishment parties, espionage, leak of stolen data, economic pressure, investment in strategic industries and military incursions.
Hybrid operations are deliberately designed to be difficult to detect or attribute and to remain below the threshold of formally declared warfare. It is often challenging to differentiate between individual incidents and coordinated campaigns.
European Disaster Risk: Terrorism
The digital transformation of the EU’s economy and society, and increasing reliance on information systems, cloud computing, big data, internet of things, automation of industrial processes and 5G technology, open new opportunities for exploitation by malevolent individuals and groups. In cyberspace, hostile and illicit operations can be carried out at a distance and with a high level of anonymity. They require limited investment, but the impact can be immense.
On 24 January 2022, the Council of the EU called on the Commission to strengthen the EU's resilience and ability to fight back against cyber-attacks. Further initiatives to ensure resilience of electronic communications infrastructure and networks in Europe have also been announced, including more cooperation at operational level, a future cyber resilience act, and the establishment of a cybersecurity emergency response fund.
The internet and social media also provide powerful tools for spreading disinformation, terrorist propaganda and extremist content. Terrorist groups and extremists can use social networking sites, online video channels and radical chat rooms to engage with disaffected people and recruit new followers.
States can spread disinformation with the help of online troll farms, bots, real and fake accounts. Rapidly advancing machine learning techniques (such as deep fakes) are likely to bring disinformation campaigns to the next level by enabling malicious individuals and groups to create alternative realities using fabricated images, audios and videos that humans cannot distinguish from authentic ones. Artificial Intelligence (AI) can help to detect malicious activities, but it can also help to craft and disguise more sophisticated attacks.
On 24 July 2020, the European Commission adopted a new EU Security Union Strategy for 2020 to 2025. The strategy lays out tools and measures to be developed over the next five years to ensure security in the EU’s physical and digital environment, from combatting terrorism and organised crime, preventing and detecting hybrid threats, and increasing the resilience of critical infrastructure, to promoting cybersecurity, and fostering research and innovation.
One of the four priorities of the EU Security Union Strategy is ‘Protecting Europeans from terrorism and organised crime’. The Strategy announced the adoption of a Counter Terrorism Agenda for the EU, together with renewed action to prevent and counter radicalisation.
The new EU Cybersecurity Strategy aims to ensure a global and open Internet with strong safeguards where there are risks to security and the fundamental rights of people in Europe. Following the progress achieved under the previous strategies, it contains concrete proposals for deploying three principal instruments. These three instruments are regulatory, investment and policy initiatives. They will address three areas of EU action: resilience, technological sovereignty and leadership; operational capacity to prevent, deter and respond; cooperation to advance a global and open cyberspace.
The complexity of these challenges calls for a comprehensive response (based on cooperation across sectoral and territorial boundaries) and a whole-of-society approach. While malicious threats may be unavoidable, their impact is dependent on the resilience of European societies.
Important aspects to this response include:
In December 2019, the European Council adopted the Conclusions on complementary efforts to enhance resilience and counter hybrid threats, which explicitly noted the need to strengthen the role of and support for the Hybrid Fusion Cell of the EU Intelligence and Situation Centre (EU INTCEN). The EU Hybrid Fusion Cell (within the European External Action Service) offers a single focus for the analysis of external aspects of hybrid threats. The Fusion Cell receives, analyses and shares classified and open-source information from different stakeholders within the EEAS, the Commission and Member States specifically relating to indicators and warnings concerning hybrid threats.
The Commission’s ‘Action plan to enhance preparedness against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear security risks’ aims to reduce the accessibility of CBRN materials, ensure a more robust preparedness for and response to CBRN security incidents, build stronger internal-external links in CBRN security with key regional and international EU partners, and enhance knowledge of CBRN risks.