Drought in Africa - April 2025

TORETI, A.; BAVERA, D.; ACOSTA NAVARRO, J.; ACQUAFRESCA, L.; BARBOSA, P.; DE JAGER, A.; FICCHÌ, A.; FIORAVANTI, G.; GRIMALDI, S.; HRAST ESSENFELDER, A.; MAGNI, D.; MAZZESCHI, M.; MCCORMICK, N.; MOUTIA, S.; OTIENO, V.; SALAMON, P.; NUNES SANTOS, S; VOLPI, D.

https://dx.doi.org/10.2760/2135988

Severe droughts affected most of northern Africa, large regions in southern Africa including in particular the Zambezi basin and northern Madagascar, and some regions in central-western Africa and East-Africa in April 2025.

The average temperature is abnormally higher than usual. Heatwaves and warm spells are exacerbating the impacts of the lack of precipitation. Soil moisture and vegetation conditions are severely affected, with negative anomalies over the aforementioned regions. In major basins, including the Zambezi, many rivers have registered very low discharge in 2023-2024. Water resources have been severely reduced in the Zambezi basin and in northern Africa with severe ecological, economic, and social impacts. Wildfire danger is high in northern sub-Saharan regions, most of the Zambezi basin and western South Africa, and some regions in northern Africa. Seasonal forecasts point to warmer than average conditions in the coming months. Precipitation forecasts for April-June 2025 are characterised by high uncertainty and variability, particularly for central and southern Africa. Drier than average conditions are forecasted for East Africa for a period coinciding with the long rains. Close monitoring of the drought evolution and proper water use plans are needed.

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