The tip of the iceberg : future of humanitarian crises under climate change and a funding model to support them

In a world where climate change is accelerating humanitarian crises, understanding the future economic magnitude of these crises is critical. Traditional economic models, which often focus on market-based impacts, fail to capture the compounding, non-market risks of climate-humanitarian crises. This gap leaves policymakers and humanitarian actors without the tools they need to allocate resources effectively in a rapidly changing world marked with cuts to multilateral development budgets, and increased state-level hostilities. Humanitarian crises are the tip of iceberg for climate change adaptation, first indicators of possibly irreversible societal damage in fragile countries before the larger mass. The thesis addresses this shortcoming by developing a climate-informed humanitarian funding model that bridges scientific projections with actionable policy insights. It culminates in machine learning-based simulations of future humanitarian needs under the business-as-usual SSP2-RCP4.5 climate scenario with warming limited to 3C by 2100—a first time to be performed at this level and scale. Humanitarian needs rise to a baseline of 410 million people and USD 64 billion annually by 2050 worldwide, increases of 28% and 30% respectively compared to 2024 (320 million people and USD 49 billion). A medium optimistic simulation holds needs near the current, while a medium pessimistic simulation leads to 614 million people and USD 96 billion by 2050, increases of 92% and 96% respectively. The results show an opportunity cost, as resources for crisis response displace funding for adaptation and mitigation. Three key innovations are introduced: (1) Actionable and policy-proof metrics that use people in need and funding requirements as proxies for climate damage; (2) use of machine learning—namely Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—and stochastic methods as an econometric tool in a data sparse and asymmetric environment, and (3) behavioural insights from the Delphi panel that ground the modelling parameters and choices. Policy recommendations include more bundled and legally coupled funding instruments in the humanitarian-development-peace nexus (e.g., climate resilience investment following humanitarian response) to achieve an integrated approach.

10.63028/10067/2229840151162165141

Antwerp : University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics , 2026