A new Joint Research Centre (JRC) report reveals a complex and evolving risk landscape in Europe, shaped by climate change, geopolitical tensions and technological advances. Scientists analysed 47 risks – natural and human-made – that threaten people, infrastructure, economies and the overall stability of the EU.
Europe needs a comprehensive, all-hazard approach involving all of society to manage these risks and to protect vital systems.
The report benefited from strong collaboration between the JRC and the Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO), reflecting the need to integrate science and policy to address today’s complex risk landscape.
Risks are complex, interconnected, cross-border – and intensifying
Based on 38 reports from EU institutions, relevant scientific publications and stakeholder consultations, the report finds that the risk landscape in Europe is well documented. However, it also reveals fragmentation across risk definitions and classification, methodologies, and standards. While these heterogeneities pose significant challenges, they also present an opportunity for improvement.
Scientists highlighted that risks rarely occur in isolation. Climate change, for example, is causing more intense wildfires and longer wildfire seasons which negatively impact air quality, health and the economy. Cyberattacks, for example, can disrupt interconnected systems across EU countries, as with floods and pandemics, which spread across borders and require coordinated responses.
This study identified several common risk drivers among the 47 risks examined: geopolitical instability is the most common, followed by weak governance, climate change and urbanisation.
Different types of risks – related to natural, technological, or societal hazards – often result in overlapping and cascading impacts. A frequent outcome is economic disruption, which can ripple through supply chains, damage industries, create geopolitical tensions and impact livelihoods.
The report also examined losses associated with each risk, demonstrating that cyber threats, climate-driven weather extremes, hydrological and geophysical events, biological hazards, and technological disruptions all show a marked rise in both direct and indirect consequences. These often affect multiple and vital functions.
Building resilience by managing growing risks and threats
Enhanced foresight capabilities are essential for addressing critical, yet often low-probability risks, such as solar storms, nuclear incidents or pandemics. Earth system tipping points are also facing a major threat. Scientists have identified 16 'tipping points' that could trigger severe consequences if crossed. While past tipping points may have occurred over centuries or even millennia, future ones could potentially occur in mere decades (e.g. coral reefs, subpolar gyre) to centuries (e.g. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)).
To stay ahead of the risks facing Europe, the EU must adopt a comprehensive approach to prevention and preparedness. This requires an inclusive, multi-sector approach to risk management.