On the occasion of International Youth Day, we spoke to Katharina Horn about her research on forest fire susceptibility in North-East Germany. Her findings emphasise the role of human influence and forest composition in managing fire risks, highlighting the need for targeted prevention and collaboration with civil protection agencies.
How do you see your findings on the factors influencing forest fire susceptibility impacting the planning, preparedness, and response efforts of civil protection agencies?
Among the factors influencing forest fire susceptibility in Brandenburg (Germany), two stood out. First, the results underline the significance of anthropogenic influences for forest fire susceptibility. The distance to settlements, railways, and campsites are highly influential factors in our model. Consequently, in times of drought, civil protection agencies and forestry stakeholders are advised to emphasise public information on the high risk of forest fires to avoid them.
Second, our model suggests that the forest composition strongly contributes to forest fires. A higher share of broadleaf trees makes forests less susceptible to fires. This finding supports the current forest management strategy in Brandenburg. It highlights the need for broadleaf species, especially in Brandenburg's pine-dominated, and therefore, highly inflammable forests.
In what ways can your research enhance the mitigation measures of civil protection authorities dealing with forest fires?
In a nutshell, this research can support civil protection authorities in Brandenburg by pointing out the factors that most likely impact forest fire susceptibility. As such, we suggest specific measures for preventive forest management and public protection. However, forest characteristics differ across regions, which is why the results of this study should be treated with caution in other geographic contexts. Nevertheless, the contribution of anthropogenic factors on the emergence of forest fires has been confirmed by other studies and should therefore receive sufficient attention.
How can your high-resolution modelling approach improve the accuracy and effectiveness of forest fire prevention measures?
We modelled forest fire susceptibility under current and future scenarios at a spatial resolution of 50 metres. The resulting maps provide detailed information on where in Brandenburg Forest fire susceptibility is likely to increase or decrease. This allows spatially explicit prevention measures including potential management prioritisation of areas that are most prone to forest fires, which may minimise their occurrence in the future. Likewise, in case of a fire, authorities can react more quickly and efficiently and thus limit the spread of a fire significantly.
The methodology we applied in this study can easily be transferred to other regions, since many of the data sets used in this study are publicly available for various regions.
Promoting exchange between natural hazard and risks researchers and civil protection agencies is crucial to improving prevention, mitigation, and adaptation strategies.
What key insights or lessons did you gain from attending the 3rd International Conference on Natural Hazards and Risks, and how has your participation enriched your approach to modelling forest fire susceptibility and addressing related challenges?
The conference was a very fruitful experience. It was great to listen to other researchers and practitioners and understand how natural hazards and risks can be assessed and what effective cooperation between different stakeholders looks like. My key takeaway was how important the translation capacities between different stakeholders are when it comes to mitigating and preventing natural hazards and risks and how all stakeholders can learn from each other’s experiences.
I heard some great examples of how research can help practitioners to better prepare for natural hazards and risks, on the one hand, and how practitioners can help researchers to tailor their research to the practitioners’ needs, on the other hand. The session on multi-hazard risk assessments with earth observation data was particularly interesting for me. It highlighted the growing significance of compound hazards that can interact and reinforce each other. In light of climate change and an associated increase in extreme weather events, strategies on how to analyse and cope with compound hazards and risks will be crucial.
What message would you like to convey to the CP community regarding the integration of your findings into forest fire management strategies, and what key recommendations from your research should be prioritised to better manage forest fire risks?
It is important to implement prevention and mitigation measures that aim at reducing human influence in forests as it is the most important driver of forest fires. With climate change and an expected increase in extreme weather events, it will be even more important to protect forests from human influences to avoid an increase in forest fires. In this regard, educational measures on different levels are key to informing the public on potential risks. In times of extreme drought, limiting the access of the public to forests may be necessary.
How do you think CP agencies can better incorporate scientific research, like yours, into their forest fire prevention and response plans?
Promoting collaboration between natural hazard researchers and civil protection agencies is crucial for improving prevention, mitigation, and adaptation strategies. It's especially important to focus on communicating the types of data that are useful and how this data can be made accessible to civil protection agencies.