We are pleased to announce the launch of the revamped Science4Peace portal, now equipped with enhanced tools to support conflict early warning, prevention, and crisis preparedness efforts. It aims to give policy makers easy access to conflict-related data through the use of interactive data visualisations and maps.

The new portal features four conflict analysis tools that focus on (1) structural conflict risk (Global Conflict Risk Index); (2) short-term conflict forecasts (Dynamic Conflict Risk Model); (3) monitoring of recent conflict events (Conflict Event Trends); and (4) maps of emerging and ongoing crises (Global Crisis Atlas). The Country Profiles integrate data from all four tools in a single page, covering 140 countries.

The transformation of the tools is a result of a collaborative effort by the the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Service for Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI) with funding from the Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI - Global Europe) - Peace, Stability and Conflict Prevention thematic programme for conflict prevention, peacebuilding and crisis preparedness. 

Recent conflict events around the world reiterate the need for robust analytics. Anticipation and early warning are essential capabilities required to fulfil that mission. For example, the current version of the Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI) uses 22 variables in six risk areas: Political, security, social, economy, geography/environment, and demographics. The criteria used for variable selection include theoretical support, empirical evidence, data availability and predictive performance.

The GCRI uses historical data from 1991 up to the present to train a statistical model that can estimate conflict risk in the near future. The model distinguishes between the following three types of conflict: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence. For each conflict type, as well as for all conflicts combined (any conflict), the GCRI estimates the average probability of conflict as well as the likely intensity of violence over the next 1-4 years.

The GCRI does not attempt to precisely predict the outbreak of individual conflicts. Instead, the goal is to assess each country’s underlying risk based on recent historical patterns and current structural conditions. These risk assessments are by definition probabilistic, meaning that high conflict risk does not inevitably result in conflict, while some low-risk countries may still experience violence in the near term.