The European Commission supported a group of ten Early Career Researchers to attend the 3rd International Conference on Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World: Addressing Compound and Multi-Hazard Risk on 12-13 June 2024. Participants were chosen based on their scientific abstracts in UCPM-relevant research, which were presented in a series of posters and presentations over the two days.
In Central Serbia, south of the Danube and Sava Rivers, torrential floods are the most frequent natural hazards. Ana took us through a ten-year inventory of the country’s floods, from 2014-2023, which saw 403 torrential floods recorded. She highlighted the need for better education for elementary and secondary schools, as well as for adults, on how to prevent and prepare for flooding, asking ‘are we flood ready’?
Booklet MYRIAD Conference
(1.58 MB - PDF)In Eva’s abstract, she points out that future wildfires are exacerbated by two main drivers: climate change and socioeconomic dynamics. In her presentation she made the case that while modelling studies account for changes in fire patterns under different climate scenarios, they largely disregard the human dynamics determining wildfire risk. Eva underlined the need for needs-risk, rather than hazard-risk, management. She aims to develop a more systematic understanding of wildfire risk through her work.
Booklet MYRIAD Conference
(1.58 MB - PDF)
Denise’s abstract outlined the need for long-term climate adaptation solutions to be considered alongside disaster risk management measures, to preserve lives and protect infrastructure from increasingly severe natural hazards. She highlighted the fact that climate impacts will not stop at borders, and it is imperative that we overcome the prevalence towards ‘siloed working’, to address these transboundary and cascading climate risks.
Denise_Mccullagh_Transboundary climate adaptation solutions: codeveloping services to manage cl
(2.37 MB - PDF)Esther’s presentation tackled climatic risk to critical infrastructure, using airports in the EU as a case study. She carried out a risk analysis of physical, social and economic indicators on Madrid Barajas airport, in order to provide a more complete picture of the risks. The main objective of her work is to establish a Critical Infrastructure classification system based on climate risk archetypes, with the aim of using these archetypes as a guideline for the design of adaptation.
Booklet MYRIAD Conference
(1.58 MB - PDF)
Elisa’s research on quantifying the impact of floods aims to provide critical insights for policymakers, urban planners, and the insurance sector, advocating a shift towards holistic risk assessment to bolster societal resilience against the impacts of natural hazards. In the context of escalating climate change, she points out that accurately quantifying the impacts of natural hazards, particularly floods, is crucial for effective risk management and for building resilient systems.
Booklet MYRIAD Conference
(1.58 MB - PDF)
Interactions between land and atmosphere have been identified as key drivers for heatwaves, particularly groundwater, through its effect on soil moisture, evaporation, and surface heat fluxes. Anastasia’s work aims to identify the primary climatic, land and hydrological drivers behind heatwaves to develop a predictive model which can project them.
Booklet MYRIAD Conference
(1.58 MB - PDF)
As part of its civil protection mechanism (UCPM), the European Union promotes the planning, implementation, and evaluation of full-scale exercises to practise cross-border assistance in major emergencies. Hendrik looks at the current evaluation process of the UCPM. His work aims to assess how an evaluation process in civil protection should be designed, and what aspects it should address.
Evaluation_Hendrik-Bruns_portrait_ucpkn.pdf
(367.41 KB - PDF)
Maria Katherina’s research looks at how Machine Learning (ML) algorithms offer a new path to tackle the analysis of multi-risk events. She developed a two-step ML approach to estimate the cumulative number of future impacts caused by extreme climate events along the Veneto coastal municipalities.
Booklet MYRIAD Conference
(1.58 MB - PDF)
In Germany, the federal state of Brandenburg has been particularly affected by forest fires in recent years. Katharina applies a Random Forest Machine Learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility in Brandenburg using a set of topographic, climatic, anthropogenic, soil, and vegetation predictor variables. This study aims to allow forest managers to better identify areas which are most susceptible to forest fires, enhancing warning systems and prevention measures.
Forest_Fires_natriskchange2024Katharina-Horn
(4.68 MB - PDF)Climate change interacts with a multitude of socioeconomic characteristics, for example, income, age, and employment, determining individual vulnerability and coping capacities. Julia’s abstract examines vulnerabilities and factors on a household level in the context of heat and flood-related risks in Austria. Through this approach, three ‘storylines’ are developed per climate risk, to contribute to improved communication on social vulnerability.
Exploring social vulnerability through narratives: A mixed-methods approach to develop storylines of vulnerability for heat and flood related risk in Austria
(478.68 KB - PDF)