Probabilistic Natech Risk analysis in the defence sector

This technical report aims to complement existing EU policies and increase the awareness on Natech risks in military facilities by providing scientific evidence. In this respect, a detailed methodology is presented for quantitative (probabilistic) Natech risk analysis for the defence infrastructure, offering a template methodology for similar risk analyses due to natural hazard impacts.
Site-specific case studies are carried out, considering three Natech scenarios of increasing complexity. Earthquakes and cascading tsunamis are selected as triggering natural hazards that impact a fictitious military facility, which comprises a diesel oil tank farm and a magazine with explosives.
Two Natech accident mechanisms are analysed, which involve the direct mechanism due to immediate physical damage to defence assets, and the propagation mechanisms due to domino effects. Natech risk analyses are conducted for a reference period of one year, considering the risk metric of human health impacts.
Thus, the annual individual risk of death or severe injuries is computed due to the physical effects of heat radiation in the event of fire, or blast overpressure in case of explosions. For the examined scenarios, the derived individual risks are mapped in contour plots, showing the risk occurrence rate and the associated impact zones. Recommendations are also provided for all examined scenarios towards Natech risk reduction measures and mitigation of adverse consequences.